Harga emas hari ini mencecah indek $1,346/oz yang paling tinggi sejak tahun 2013. Antara punca utama kenaikan luar biasa emas kali ini dikatakan kesan “Brexit Gold Rush” atau Britain Exit apabila rakyat Britain mengundi semalam 24/6/2016 untuk keluar dari gagasan European Union.
Rakyat Britain mengundi untuk keluar dan telah mencetuskan situasi panik kepada kuasa ekonomi dunia seperti Amerika dan Jepun. Semua mata-mata pelabur emas kini tertumpu pada minggu hadapan adakah harga emas mencecah USD1,400/oz dalam tempoh masa singkat dengan selepas keputusan Brexit adalah keluar.
Situasi panik ini memberi kesan kepada pelabur-pelabur jepun untuk menarik balik pinjaman dan pelaburan mereka di luar negara terutamanya di US kerana setiap kali harga emas naik, matawang USD akan lemah dan pelabur Jepun pastinya memilih untuk meminimumkan risiko dengan keluar dari pasaran saham US dan kembali ke NIKKEI yang semakin pulih.
Miningfeeds update by Stewart Thompson
- A “Leave” vote is even more positive for the gold price, and if it’s followed by a rate hike from Janet Yellen in July, global stock markets could begin a horrific down cycle.
- Gold is very sensitive to the price action of the US dollar against the Japanese Yen.
- Japan is the world’s largest creditor nation, and America is the world’s largest debtor nation. The Brexit turmoil is causing Japanese citizens and institutions to repatriate money from abroad. That puts heavy downwards pressure on the US dollar.
- When the world’s largest creditor class goes into “risk-off” mode, powerful institutional money managers buy gold aggressively.
- During the “QE heydays” of 2009 – 2011, highly levered hedge funds were aggressive SPDR fund buyers. Sadly, that leverage meant they couldn’t hold their positions when the price dipped.
- Now, a lot of un-leveraged private banks and value-oriented institutions are the buyers. They won’t be shaken from their positions, and they are buying gold consistently.
- A rate hike that follows Brexit turmoil could put the Dow into crash mode, and send gold straight towards $1400.
- Gold has an solid floor of bullish fundamentals underneath it now. That means the downside is very limited, but it’s difficult for Western money managers to overwhelm supply when India is in quiet mode, as it is now.
- So, it’s important that gold market investors exhibit patience. Gold has really been trading sideways from mid-February, in a loose rectangular price pattern. Chinese New Year buying ended in February, and India is still one to two months away from serious Diwali-related dealer buying.
- The bottom line is that as Asian physical demand strengthens, Western money manager buying will push total global demand above total supply, and the next major leg higher for gold will be underway!
- I beg to differ. If gold can make it to the $1400 area, the profits made by gold companies can increase dramatically, and that would unleash a fresh round of powerful institutional buying. Gold stocks should not only continue to lead bullion in the second half of 2016, but they appear poised to increase that out performance!